The Plot Thickens

I haven't written my blog for some time because first of all, internet connection in Venezuela is not good at the moment. Partly to blame are the forest and bush fires sprouting all over the country. Most of them are the result of arson. Yesterday the Canaima National Park caught fire, and at some point of the day it was reported that the Auyantepuy, one of the most characteristic natural landmarks on this planet, was shrouded in smoke and flames. Every day as I drive over the main highway ARC, I see with pain in my heart how whole sections of natural landscape are being devoured by enormous fires, all of them close to human settlements and all of them lit by human hand. Needless to say, nature suffers a great deal, and many sloths, iguanas and other inhabitants of virgin forest zones are dying or forced to flee, only to be run over by drivers without any conscience.

The destruction of Venezuelan nature is only symptomatic of what is happening in the country in the days prior to the second presidential election in 6 months. Following the enigmatic death of Hugo Chavez - of which the truth will emerge sooner or later - his successor, the Cuban-backed Nicolas Maduro, has enjoyed a month-long advantage over Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate, who only half a year ago lost to Hugo Chavez and has since then struggled to regain his popularity. Maduro has been able to exploit public grief over Chavez' death to push himself in the limelight as the new leader.

The disastrous economic decisions taken by the Maduro regime in the last 100 days have, however, started to tilt popular preference towards Capriles. Maduro's fetishism with the dead Chavez, stating aloud that he is the real son of the dead Comandante, has alienated more and more chavists who see the playing-around with Chavez' body, name and legacy as plain disrespect towards their dead leader. He is constantly seen as hiding behind Chavez, which is raising more and more questions among the Chavist population about who the real presidential candidate really is. It all sounds and looks like a necromantic spectacle from a very cheap vampire movie.

And there is more. Maduro's stupid homophobic remarks, trying to show Capriles as gay in a macho society, are working against him now. His total ignorance of even the country's geography, triggering a whole wave of ridicule and bitter jokes about his supposed lack of intelligence, are steadily eroding popular support for the Chavist side. The regime's attempts to link Capriles to a supposed plan to murder Maduro, assisted by a complacent leftist Salvadorian government on the payroll of Caracas, are drawing few believers even among Chavist supporters.

All in all, Maduro's initial advantage has been eroding thanks to his unwise decision, words and actions. Even in spite of his resources, buying and bribing consciences, he gets fewer and fewer persons on his side.

Meanwhile, the initially insecure Capriles has been skyrocketing to new heights. As a public orator, he is drawing crowds of hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic supporters nation-wide, daily. His proposals are clear: end the corruption, end the giving away of billions in exchange for political backing elsewhere, restructure the economy, fight crime (which is now whopping at unknown heights), and restore parliamentary democracy and the balance of powers. It will mean probably the end of Castrist rule on Cuba, and problems in cashflow with leftist-populist governments such as Nicaragua and Bolivia. And herald a new era in Venezuela, after more than 20 years of political and social unrest.

Analysts predict a close draw in the elections next Sunday with both candidates having equal chances. Judging by what I hear and see on the streets, I think Capriles has a very big chance of winning. His charisma has been compared to that of Chavez in 1998. He is moving humble hearts as well as minds, offering them hope. His task is being helped by the abysmal performance of the Maduro regime.

I hope that my next entry can start with the sentence "Capriles won". I will tell you all about it after this Sunday. Have a great weekend.