Long, Hot Summer

Damn it´s hot. Excuse my French but I can´t think of any other way of expressing my disgust at the endless row of hot, steamy days accompanied by the acrid smell of bush and forest fires all around you. True, it´s a special sight to drive along the Autopista Regional del Centro at night and see the pitch black dark lightened up by roaring fires all around you. But it´s sad. Most of the fires are man-made, senseless people lightening up candles at some shrine and leaving the lit candles all in the middle of scorched grass. It makes you wonder whether people here are pyromans or just plain senseless.

Anyhow, this is the background to a country in escalating frenzy after the death of Hugo Chavez. Some people are walking around like out-of-season Santa´s in red chavista uniform, struttin´ their stuff as they say. Others are just getting on the street for the necessary shopping. The streets in the old western part of Caracas - Quinta Crespo, Santa Teresa, San Juan and El Paraiso - are not that full, but you clearly sense that some people are out looking for trouble. So people like me avoid the streets, buy enough for at least a week (this also to avoid looking at empty shelves when you need something and there isn´t any), just try to stay at home. The mood in Venezuela is maddening, to say the least. Even when you don´t watch any news, don´t follow any political events, the moment you walk on the streets you bump into crowds of frenzied red-shirted bikeriders and look at the electoral propaganda of Nicolas Maduro hanging by magic from every lamppost in the city. The word "Maduro" is there alright on the posters, but I see the face of Hugo Chavez and Chavez´signature beneath it. As if from the underworld Chavez is still running for president. Sometimes I feel Venezuela won´t ever get rid of this phantom. I am not exaggerating, really. I wish I were somewhere else, now more than ever. It all seems a very bad Stephen King novel interlaced with a lousily written local telenovela.

The electoral campaign has begun, inofficially, with Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate, calling Nicolas Maduro a plain liar and explaining why, and Maduro replying with the word faggot. Yes, you´ve read it correctly. For the umpteenth time the chavist side has called Capriles a faggot, a "maricon". Embellishing this insult are califications like rich-born kid, rotten aristocrat and so on. It´s clear that Maduro, who walks around puffed-up in his presidential mode, has no real arguments to throw at Capriles´ face. So he hides behind Chavez´ hallowed image, hoping that Venezuelan voters will vote for him in the assumption that they vote for Chavez, as they have done so for years. In this country, marked by a belief in the supernatural, an army of Virgins all competing with each others, and even more saints and pseudovirgins of the Catholic stables posing as African deities, selling the idea of voting for a dead candidate who is not dead really, is not as hare-brained as you might think.

Accompanying this folkloristic performance is a grimmer factor. Capriles seems to have avoided an attempt on his life day before yesterday, when he was expected to inscribe his candidature at the National Electoral Council (CNE). He didn´t show up, letting the inscription be done by one of the heads of his campaign. This was greeted by a jeering cannonade of insults by the chavist side, of course. But investigations are underway, and the proofs shown are serious enough to conclude that the fear for Henrique Capriles´ life is justified. Maduro´s call that everyone should get a gun to "defend the Revolution" could be taken too literally by the army of hotheads that made Chavez´s presidency possible.

The King Is Dead - Long Live The King????

I have waited on purpose for a week before writing here. So many things have been happening here in Venezuela, as you might know, that I decided to wait these days to let the dust settle down and then see what is really happening here.

The death of Hugo Chavez - an event that has announced itself for more than a month before it came out on March 5 - has eclipsed all news events, even that of the papal reelection. I have been an eye witness to the mass grieving, mass hysteria grabbing hold of a great portion of the Venezuelan people. The grieving is genuine, I can assure you. The void left by Hugo Chavez is so enormous - he has willy-nilly changed the country since 1999 - that virtually no one has the foot size to fill his enormous boots. Not even Nicolas Maduro, dubbed Mr. Potato Head, whose appearances have been till now nothing more than a bleak carbon copy of those of El Comandante, and nothing more than that. His fanaticism is borderless however, as well as his friendship with the Castro-communist gerontocracy on the island of Cuba. That will give him at least a period of strength, given to him by a desperate Raul Castro who knows perfectly well that Venezuela's free oil accounts for 60% of the yearly revenues of the broke island's state.

Still, Mr. Maduro, as the anointed successor to Hugo Chavez, appears like a boy putting on his dad's shoes. His desperate attempts at emulating Hugo Chavez have till now harvested some success as well as ridicule, even from chavists. Venezuelan chavism - its hardcore is at least 40% of the population - is in genuine grief, looking up to Hugo Chavez as a divinity and finding some comfort in having Maduro as a stand-in for him. But the country's economy is running steerless. The shortages of even basic goods, car spare parts etc. are caused by a chronic cash shortage of the Venezuelan government. The attempts at introducing a Marxist economic structure in Venezuela since 2007 have caused havoc and virtually destroyed the national production. In 2012, 97% of the country's yearly revenue was based on oil, while at the time of Chavez' rise in 1999 it hovered around 60%. The country, which produced its own dairy products till 2007, now is totally dependent on milk and cheese importations from Argentina, Uruguay and other countries. Marxist-inspired expropiations and nationalisations have done nothing but destroy Venezuela's non-oil production. The national currency, the bolivar, is worth nothing outside of the country, and quickly losing its value in Venezuela. The day Venezuela isn't able to import anymore with its petrodollars in order to finance its misiones and fill up empty shelves, is the day everything here will experience a melt-down. That day won't come soon, but it depicts in a clear way how deteriorated this country has become under chavist rule, and how we all live and bounce on an oil bubble which, theoretically, could one day burst and throw the whole nation into an abyss.

Despite Hugo Chavez's undoubted achievements on the social and macropolitical fields - he has redefined Latin America's position against the rest of the world, for instance, and introduced social policies in a region oblivious to its army of poors - his ultimate legacy for Venezuela has been a total failure. The country is split in two almost equal parts. The economy is a shambles, the criminality has never been that higher ever in its history, society is merged in a deep crisis. And he has been too late in building up a good continuity of his regime. Nicolas Maduro, or whoever will be put in his place by a restless military (who clearly is controlling the country's course now), will be able to stir up chavist sentiments for a time. But when the people realize that the man / woman in the red shirt imitating El Comandante is NOT Chavez, and has only hollow recycled phrases to sell to them amidst chaos and a mounting anarchy, what will happen then?

As things go, and historical events flow, the chavist movement without its charismatic founder and leader, will soon split up like peronism in Argentinia, into radical and less radical factions. It's too early yet to tell what will happen in Venezuela in the coming months. One thing is sure however. Opposition leader Henrique Capriles has a very slim chance of winning the April 14 presidential elections against Nicolas Maduro. Maduro has made a very clever use of Hugo Chavez' death, the country's grieving and the ironclad control of the regime on all national institutes, including the Supreme Court. Thanks to that, Maduro has achieved to push through his grab for power in a pseudo-legal way. His investiture as "interim president" and his simultaneous candidature for president have broken constitutional and electoral law, but protests were in vain. The Supreme Court, a true kangaroo court, approved all of this.

So, it is expected Maduro will win the presidency on April 14. But as I pointed out before, what will happen when the country will start looking past the Chavez mask and see who Maduro really is? I personally don't think Maduro is able to master the power machinery left behind by Chavez. He has no economic background, no original ideas other than that of a syndicalist leader he once was. Will he be able to survive the transitional period? One never knows how the cookie crumbles. But if Nicolas Maduro wants to survive as president and new leader of the chavist movement, he will have to change, and quickly.

While Chavez, despite his bully acting, really knew when to play soft tunes to his adversaries and when not, Maduro has no clue what that means. His attitude towards the opposition has been sheer agressive and abusive. Other than looking for reconciliation and national peace, his boorish behaviour has only deepened the gap between chavists and opposition, and maybe even between chavists themselves. Although they know Maduro is Chavez' appointed successor, he lacks the charisma and the popularity among that group. He will have to change his acting and his image quickly. Otherwise, I see a new period of chaos for Venezuela after April 14. As if Venezuela isn't living in enough chaos already.

Waiting for Hugo Godot

Another weekend came and went, and still there is no real news about Hugo Chavez. Nothing. The only information the world gets, is through VP Nicolas Maduro and his team, who in a series of contradictory messages paint an image of Hugo Chavez as the president who is both present and absent. Jokes are going around about the enigmatic president - one that he is the true Santa: no one sees him but everyone has to believe in him. Needless to say at this point, the government hasn't done anything to dispel rumors about the true condition of Hugo Chavez. If anything, the contradictory reports from within the government itself have only fanned them to new heights. But attention of the Venezuelans is gradually turning to their everyday problems such as the devaluation, the scarcity of products, and above all the rampant criminality. Even the opposition media are paying less and less attention to what is happening politically. Everybody is getting tired of this hide-and-seek game, even the chavists.

But the social networks, specially Twitter, are fuming with wildest rumors, truths, half-truths and downright lies. There was one rumor, last Friday just after I closed my blog, that there was a quarrel between VP Maduro and the defense minister admiral Molero, in which Maduro supposedly wanted to sack Molero for insubordination and Molero replied that the only one to sack him is Chavez personally, and no one else. Nobody has confirmed this news / rumor, but I personally don't discard it. The army have been very silent these last days, their political conman Diosdado Cabello has kept his mouth shut as well while Maduro and his civil neocommunist club have been endlessly blabbing and contradicting each other. It is advisable to watch how the armed forces, this dark horse, the source of power and coup d'etats, will behave the weeks to come.

Meanwhile, on the economic front things are going from bad to worse. Something is not going right with the importations. There are signs that the chavist government is strapped of cash with the barrel of oil at around 100 bucks (???). That could explain in great part the puzzling shortage of even sugar! This country exported sugar! Now it seems most of the white sweet stuff is coming from capitalist Brazil. The government is doing everything to contradict this even with the use of plain lies. According to this socialist government, there is no shortage. "Hamstering agents" of the "ultraright fascist groups" under orders of the "foreign imperialists" are supposedly sabotaging the blooming socialist economy, planted by the "endless wisdom of Chairman Mao, sorry Comandante Chavez" blablabla. The same endless communist blabber which I heard in the seventies and eighties. Anyone suffering of so-called "Ostalgia", or nostalgia for Soviet times, should come here. For me, it's like riding a time machine over and over again. With of course knowing that this movie, called Socialist Venezuela, will end in total and utter failure.

But back to the news. The expected devaluation is now 3 weeks old, but independent economic analysts are already stating that Venezuela will suffer a second devaluation. If that is true, and I think it is, the devaluation will take place after the July elections, putting the country under a very tough situation till that month, when it probably will get worse. To erase all doubts: the economic decline in Venezuela started right after Chavez started the conversion to a marxist economic structure in January 2007, after his second reelection. It has virtually devastated the country's non-oil production, making the country even more dependent (over 90%) on its oil revenues. Despite heavy warnings from all side, the Chavez team is bent on keeping and even radicalizing its marxist course, thinking maybe that the oil revenues will wash away all mistakes. But to me and countless others living this downward hill ride with horror and amazement, things in Venezuela will get worse, much worse. This neocommunist Jurassic Park will throw Venezuela to the level of Castrist Cuba.

Unless people open their eyes. This however is a wish, not a statement built on facts. Venezuelans are still much too cozy in their semi fantasy world, fueled by the world's cheapest gasoline, to really understand what is coming to them. And the poor? Always been poor and ignorant, always will be. To them, Hugo Chavez will remain a redeemer for the time to come, even as this regime is starting to crumble away under the crushing weight of its own ineptitude.

Back again! Reloaded!!!!

Well, it's been a very long time. Living in this godforsaken city - it will be 7 years coming July - has impeded me in keeping true to this blog. But I have made a solemn promise to myself to be a Good And Faithful Blogger.
At this very moment, I am sitting in the middle of the Venezuelan post-Chavez vortex, about 20 minutes driving from the military hospital where he is SUPPOSED to be convalescing after having SUPPOSEDLY been flown back from Havanna, Cuba last Monday.
It's now Friday on the calendar and we have seen "dick" of Chavez, nothing, not even a blurry picture. The smiling and happy-happy pictures of Chavez and his daughters, SUPPOSEDLY taken last February 14, are most probably Photoshop fakes, as countless Venezuelan Twittees have posted their own version of the picture with Chavez reading Playboy, an opposition newspaper, you name it. I have downloaded some very funny ones, one very crafty one of Hitler reading a Venezuelan newspaper of that very day. Photoshop is Magic. That was for sure. But what is happening with Chavez? Where is he? Is he still alive?
Despite Peace Noble prize winner Rigoberta Menchu and hordes of red-clad wellwishers screaming and assuring each and everyone that Chavez will be on his feet in no time, helped by astral forces and whatever, the rational look at Chavez' chances of ever reappearing, is bleak, to say the least. I personally sense that the regime of Vicepresident Maduro, which is doing everything to crush and intimidate dissenters and the opposition, is desperate to hold power no matter what the cost. A NO to Venezuela's plea for more credits from Big Buddy China has made things worse, leading the straggling economy to a dark abyss with a devaluation of almost 50% - the third in three years in a row - , rising prices, food shortages, rampant criminality and whatever else it takes to ruin my days in this country.
If Chavez is dead, or not fit anymore to hold the presidency he was reelected to last fall, then reelections are mandatory according to the country's constitution. The mentioning of this by MP's of the opposition have resulted in enormous regime yelling and screaming, threats and some of those opposition politicians being accused of corruption and persecuted juridically by the government-controlled justice apparatus. Forget any impartiality from the government's side. It's a Cuban-styled Soviet era totalitarian regime with trotskyist mannerisms. And the Chavez-wannabe VP Nicolas Maduro has made this clear to everyone caring to listen and understand. Under Chavez, this regime made its utmost efforts to show a democratic face to the world. Maduro and the cronies of his regime have no problems in tearing that mask from their totalitarian faces. Efforts are made to exclude the only independent TV channel Globovision from the new digital TV system, shutting the last critical mediatic voice down and submitting the rest to follow the regime's ideological line.
The last deed of the Maduro regime has now been to deny a former police inspector, accused of killing scores of demonstrators in 2002 in a kangaroo court with forged evidence, a more humane treatment, while medical reports clearly state that the prisoner's health is failing. The denial by a government-controlled judge will probably seal this man's fate.
Venezuela is a broke country, with all its oil richness. The country is rife with anarchy at the moment. The regime does everything now to prepare the credulous part of the Venezuelan population for what the rest already knows. But God only knows what the effect will be on a country that is feeling more like a shaken champagne bottle ready to burst.
Keep in touch, also via Twitter: @avginkel.

Obama!

Dear nightly dwellers, Caracas is saying hello to you again. I´m sure you agree with me that we are living through special times. Specially in the USA, where a special man whom I won´t need to describe became president. I had my doubts about Obama, I must admit. During the presidential campaign, he sounded too Carterish, too Clintonesque. I am a witness of the disasters resulting from Jimmy Carter´s good-willed human rights politics, and what can I say about Bill, besides Monica, blue dresses and cigars? That he was a president of smooth and nice words... but bombs kept raining on Afghanistan and Iraq during his 8 years in office, so there is something to be said in favor of George Dubya Bush - he was not the first one to be mean to Saddam Hussein, just the one who gave him the final kick.

But on January 20th, I saw a serious, calm-looking man with a noble attitude, holding one of the best political speeches I´ve heard in years. So, Mr. President, forgive my doubts. I´m sure you will be the best Democratic president since Harry S. Truman. In any case, should you ever read these lines from Venezuela, here comes some advice. Be true to yourself. And tell Chavez to get stuffed.

Hugo Chávez doesn´t like you. In fact, he is so mad at you (being that fading artist of former glory who suddenly sees his audience shifting towards that new, younger performer) that instead of using the N word and getting rid of his bad vibes, he unleashes a savage ire and fury towards demonstrating students. Ordering his police and military forces to use "gas of the best" on them, beating the hell out of them... and it was all screamed on live TV. So said, so done. Students had a bad day yesterday. But Venezuela had an even worse day. And all because Hugo is angry at you, Mr. President. Because he knows that he is no more the big star of the Third World. He could make Africans cheer at him with some free petrol tankers - but now Africans are cheering at you for free - because of you.

Congratulations, Mr. President. I foresee a future for our world, and really - you are more inspiring already than JFK has ever been. Keep it up. I have heard enough recycled hate slogans here in this country that remind me of a drab and grey 70´s day in the Soviet Union. Enough of Che, enough of old senile men trying to play young revolutionaries. Who needs a half-dead Fidel and a worn-out Hugo when the leader of the most potent country on this planet is fulfilling a dream of millions? Without executions, without hatred, without exiles.

Long live democracy. And good luck to you, Mr. President.

Malcolm X

Good evening once again. It has been some time since I wrote my last entry, but what can you do - living in Caracas is a busy and hectic affair. That´s why I enjoy even the smallest moment of relaxation.

By the way, I love movies. Whether in the cinema or on TV or on DVD, it doesn´t matter - I´m in for most of them. I can watch some movies repeatedly, enjoying the "aha" moment, certain scenes, certain memorized quotes etc.. For me, watching a good movie is pure relaxation, whether on my own or in company.

If you are a TV addict, living in Venezuela means you´ve got to have cable. Otherwise, receiving the local TV station like Televen, Venevisión and the notorious fighting duo VTV and Globovisión will bring you the sudden cadenas or "chained" broadcasts, in which the President will take hours of your idle time to open a dairy factory somewhere on the plains, or preside over the graduation of hundreds of eager beaver students, and take his time to sing, dance, recite poems, be applauded over and over again in the best Kim Il-Yong fashion by red-shirted people, and explain to you and me, in hours-long, almost endless rhethoric repetitions why He is good and the "others" are bad. Apart from the fact that his speeches are more and more like faded carbon copies of each other, his stentorian ranting gives me a headache after approx. 10 minutes. Chávez is like certain strong drinks: don´t drink it all down in a gulp, but sip it, and sigh now and then.

Last week all records of his 10-year regime were broken when he gave a seven-and-a-half-hour non-stop monologue during the New Year parliamentary session. All ministers, red-shirted parliamentaries and invited members of the corps diplomatique were, so I suppose, sitting with crossed legs and with anguished faces, not having anything to drink, to eat or even being able to go to the toilet. Even more: this marathonic session was put on all public TV and radio stations, depriving very annoyed housemothers of their eveningly soaps or telenovelas. In fact, many cacerolazos or beating of pots and pans as a sign of protest were heard in various areas of Caracas. I tuned in on three separate occasions to check whether El Presidente was finished, and during those three times - to my big surprise - he talked about the miracles of the Barrio Adentro mission. Rather monothematic, I thought by myself. Hardly a word about the economic hurricane approaching the country with mathematical certainty, not a single word about the Real Problems harrassing the country - like the horrific insecurity, the galloping corruption and the growing unemployment. To El Presidente, these things do not exist and are mere inventions of the CIA-operated media wanting to put his Revolution into discredit. Chávez dixit.

So, in order to avoid those political things at a time you want to relax, you get cable TV. One channel which I like is the History one, and this afternoon I enjoyed once more the movie Malcolm X with Denzel Washington. Great movie, a cinematographic monument to a man who like Nelson Mandela, began as a person believing in violence to save people, and ended as a apostle of peace, understanding and a strong sense of the brotherhood of man that binds us all on this planet.

I thought, maybe if Ché Guevara, the Prophet of Leftist Hatred, had lived long enough, he would have given his ill-fated revolt a better, cleaner turn. As we know, even Fidel Castro grew more cautious, more balanced over the years. Maybe if Venezuela lets Hugo Chávez rule as Beloved President and Commander till his 75th birthday, as he so much wants it..... maybe we would meet a different, more cautious, less foul-mouthed ruler who is more concerned about social matters and less about the Everduring Battle against the US Empire. Age makes wiser, who knows.

But that, my friends, is an entirely different story. Sleep well, and till soon!

Don´t Worry, Be Happy

Venezuelan coasts give you a direct access to lovely beaches and that blue Caribbean Sea with stunning spots - for a fantastic Tropical Holiday, take a plane to Los Roques. So Venezuela should, according to Logic, have a Caribbean spirit hovering over there.

In great part this is true. Of course, there is that conquistador thing rushing through minds and hearts..... Venezuelans on the whole are, like their other Latin brethren, easily offended. Like a coin that has two sides, so do Venezuelans, in a way very appropiate for a country at cultural crossroads. You have the Spanish influence with easily flared-up tempers (watch it at times!), but flipping the coin, you´ll find that enormous, warm smile of the Venezuelans, their happy spirits, their boisterous partying and their joking about all things in life.

In that way, they are very similiar to Cubans. Cuba has just celebrated its 50th birthday under a repressive, post-sovietic regime under the Castro brothers, who in their drive to create homo socialisticus have dipped the island into an everlasting poverty. Still, Cubans drive out the bad vibes with their fantastic music and their happy spirits. There is a Cuban song whose refrain goes like: How I´m doing? I´m older than yesterday and younger than tomorrow. For Cubans in general, today is what counts. Today is the real reality.

That pragmatic way of looking at life is found among most Venezuelans. OK, so Caracas is quickly becoming the most violent capital on the planet. And yes, Venezuela has, between military dictatorships, known few good or even decent governments. To many, the only real difference between Chavez and his bourgeois predecessors is that the latter stole and then stepped down, while the former steals and stays on.

But still, Venezuela is a happy country. Problems at home or at work? Venezuelans retreat to the beach, the countryside or that parking lot I spoke about earlier, they set up their BBQ´s, put the domino game on the table, take out that cooler box full of beer out of the 4x4 and enjoy life, guys and gals alike. No serious talk please! Joking around, fooling around, enjoy salsa tunes and find any possibilty to just have a party, or an after-party party. The more grimly reality stares at the Venezuelan, the more happily he will grin back.

How many ordinary Venezuelans are shot to death on Saturday or Sunday night coming home from parties? You read about them every week in the newspapers. It sometimes baffles me how strong the good spirits of these people can be. It must be the true strength of the Venezuelan, his hard core which no corrupt politician nor power-hungry military can ever squash to death. And as I wrote earlier, that Red Grinch has tried it so hard, fearing his Revolution may go off the boil..... still he didn´t succeed. Venezuela kept on partying as well as possible.

If you ever want to experience a country with so much poverty and violence, and yet such high spirits, come to Venezuela. If you can make it in Venezuela, you can make it anywhere. And with a Don´t Worry Be Happy smile, I wish you a pleasant evening from Caracas, the ugliest and yet most wonderful city I know.