Latest News On The Elections

Yesterday night was the closure of the very unique and controversial presidential election campaign in Venezuela. Maduro made the "best" of it claiming he is the president of what can be translated as the "scum of the earth", and that he would build schools for "mongoloid" children - verbatim. His folksy and crude way of expressing himself, a trademark of these elections (Capriles, an upper-class technocrat with a socialdemocrat streak, also adopted this), have struck raw nerves even among moderate Chavists who still support him.

Foreign publications maintain, till now, that Capriles is lagging in the latest polls and that Maduro will become the sure winner of these elections. In view of the bleak economic outlook, it strikes me why so few foreign journalists bother to ask the "why" question. The 100 days of the Maduro regime - following the suspicious death of Hugo Chavez at the hands of Cuban doctors - have been disastrous, and I can tell you this first-hand. The violence, connected or not to the election, has been unusually high. But not a word of this is found in foreign reports on the Venezuelan elections.

From what I know, I can state that Capriles has outrun Maduro in the latest tracking polls. The publication of the latest numbers is not allowed by Venezuelan electoral law, but the genuine enthusiasm found among the hundreds of thousands of Capriles followers who braved blistering sun and heat to listen to his speeches, has contrasted more and more with the forced jeering of obligated attendees to Maduro´s rallies, clad all in red and driven from all over the country in state-owned busses, of whom many yesterday took the chance of being in the capital to do some strolling-around in the busy shopping malls.

I personally believe the elections wil be a very close call. The Election Commitee CNE, although supposed to be impartial, has shown the opposite, drawing some heavy fire from the opposition. The regime will do everything to win these crucial elections, so cheating won´t be excluded. Opposition sympathizers, who number at least 6,5 million (the number who voted for Capriles last fall) smell victory for their candidate.

I will keep you posted.

The Plot Thickens

I haven't written my blog for some time because first of all, internet connection in Venezuela is not good at the moment. Partly to blame are the forest and bush fires sprouting all over the country. Most of them are the result of arson. Yesterday the Canaima National Park caught fire, and at some point of the day it was reported that the Auyantepuy, one of the most characteristic natural landmarks on this planet, was shrouded in smoke and flames. Every day as I drive over the main highway ARC, I see with pain in my heart how whole sections of natural landscape are being devoured by enormous fires, all of them close to human settlements and all of them lit by human hand. Needless to say, nature suffers a great deal, and many sloths, iguanas and other inhabitants of virgin forest zones are dying or forced to flee, only to be run over by drivers without any conscience.

The destruction of Venezuelan nature is only symptomatic of what is happening in the country in the days prior to the second presidential election in 6 months. Following the enigmatic death of Hugo Chavez - of which the truth will emerge sooner or later - his successor, the Cuban-backed Nicolas Maduro, has enjoyed a month-long advantage over Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate, who only half a year ago lost to Hugo Chavez and has since then struggled to regain his popularity. Maduro has been able to exploit public grief over Chavez' death to push himself in the limelight as the new leader.

The disastrous economic decisions taken by the Maduro regime in the last 100 days have, however, started to tilt popular preference towards Capriles. Maduro's fetishism with the dead Chavez, stating aloud that he is the real son of the dead Comandante, has alienated more and more chavists who see the playing-around with Chavez' body, name and legacy as plain disrespect towards their dead leader. He is constantly seen as hiding behind Chavez, which is raising more and more questions among the Chavist population about who the real presidential candidate really is. It all sounds and looks like a necromantic spectacle from a very cheap vampire movie.

And there is more. Maduro's stupid homophobic remarks, trying to show Capriles as gay in a macho society, are working against him now. His total ignorance of even the country's geography, triggering a whole wave of ridicule and bitter jokes about his supposed lack of intelligence, are steadily eroding popular support for the Chavist side. The regime's attempts to link Capriles to a supposed plan to murder Maduro, assisted by a complacent leftist Salvadorian government on the payroll of Caracas, are drawing few believers even among Chavist supporters.

All in all, Maduro's initial advantage has been eroding thanks to his unwise decision, words and actions. Even in spite of his resources, buying and bribing consciences, he gets fewer and fewer persons on his side.

Meanwhile, the initially insecure Capriles has been skyrocketing to new heights. As a public orator, he is drawing crowds of hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic supporters nation-wide, daily. His proposals are clear: end the corruption, end the giving away of billions in exchange for political backing elsewhere, restructure the economy, fight crime (which is now whopping at unknown heights), and restore parliamentary democracy and the balance of powers. It will mean probably the end of Castrist rule on Cuba, and problems in cashflow with leftist-populist governments such as Nicaragua and Bolivia. And herald a new era in Venezuela, after more than 20 years of political and social unrest.

Analysts predict a close draw in the elections next Sunday with both candidates having equal chances. Judging by what I hear and see on the streets, I think Capriles has a very big chance of winning. His charisma has been compared to that of Chavez in 1998. He is moving humble hearts as well as minds, offering them hope. His task is being helped by the abysmal performance of the Maduro regime.

I hope that my next entry can start with the sentence "Capriles won". I will tell you all about it after this Sunday. Have a great weekend.

Long, Hot Summer

Damn it´s hot. Excuse my French but I can´t think of any other way of expressing my disgust at the endless row of hot, steamy days accompanied by the acrid smell of bush and forest fires all around you. True, it´s a special sight to drive along the Autopista Regional del Centro at night and see the pitch black dark lightened up by roaring fires all around you. But it´s sad. Most of the fires are man-made, senseless people lightening up candles at some shrine and leaving the lit candles all in the middle of scorched grass. It makes you wonder whether people here are pyromans or just plain senseless.

Anyhow, this is the background to a country in escalating frenzy after the death of Hugo Chavez. Some people are walking around like out-of-season Santa´s in red chavista uniform, struttin´ their stuff as they say. Others are just getting on the street for the necessary shopping. The streets in the old western part of Caracas - Quinta Crespo, Santa Teresa, San Juan and El Paraiso - are not that full, but you clearly sense that some people are out looking for trouble. So people like me avoid the streets, buy enough for at least a week (this also to avoid looking at empty shelves when you need something and there isn´t any), just try to stay at home. The mood in Venezuela is maddening, to say the least. Even when you don´t watch any news, don´t follow any political events, the moment you walk on the streets you bump into crowds of frenzied red-shirted bikeriders and look at the electoral propaganda of Nicolas Maduro hanging by magic from every lamppost in the city. The word "Maduro" is there alright on the posters, but I see the face of Hugo Chavez and Chavez´signature beneath it. As if from the underworld Chavez is still running for president. Sometimes I feel Venezuela won´t ever get rid of this phantom. I am not exaggerating, really. I wish I were somewhere else, now more than ever. It all seems a very bad Stephen King novel interlaced with a lousily written local telenovela.

The electoral campaign has begun, inofficially, with Henrique Capriles, the opposition candidate, calling Nicolas Maduro a plain liar and explaining why, and Maduro replying with the word faggot. Yes, you´ve read it correctly. For the umpteenth time the chavist side has called Capriles a faggot, a "maricon". Embellishing this insult are califications like rich-born kid, rotten aristocrat and so on. It´s clear that Maduro, who walks around puffed-up in his presidential mode, has no real arguments to throw at Capriles´ face. So he hides behind Chavez´ hallowed image, hoping that Venezuelan voters will vote for him in the assumption that they vote for Chavez, as they have done so for years. In this country, marked by a belief in the supernatural, an army of Virgins all competing with each others, and even more saints and pseudovirgins of the Catholic stables posing as African deities, selling the idea of voting for a dead candidate who is not dead really, is not as hare-brained as you might think.

Accompanying this folkloristic performance is a grimmer factor. Capriles seems to have avoided an attempt on his life day before yesterday, when he was expected to inscribe his candidature at the National Electoral Council (CNE). He didn´t show up, letting the inscription be done by one of the heads of his campaign. This was greeted by a jeering cannonade of insults by the chavist side, of course. But investigations are underway, and the proofs shown are serious enough to conclude that the fear for Henrique Capriles´ life is justified. Maduro´s call that everyone should get a gun to "defend the Revolution" could be taken too literally by the army of hotheads that made Chavez´s presidency possible.

The King Is Dead - Long Live The King????

I have waited on purpose for a week before writing here. So many things have been happening here in Venezuela, as you might know, that I decided to wait these days to let the dust settle down and then see what is really happening here.

The death of Hugo Chavez - an event that has announced itself for more than a month before it came out on March 5 - has eclipsed all news events, even that of the papal reelection. I have been an eye witness to the mass grieving, mass hysteria grabbing hold of a great portion of the Venezuelan people. The grieving is genuine, I can assure you. The void left by Hugo Chavez is so enormous - he has willy-nilly changed the country since 1999 - that virtually no one has the foot size to fill his enormous boots. Not even Nicolas Maduro, dubbed Mr. Potato Head, whose appearances have been till now nothing more than a bleak carbon copy of those of El Comandante, and nothing more than that. His fanaticism is borderless however, as well as his friendship with the Castro-communist gerontocracy on the island of Cuba. That will give him at least a period of strength, given to him by a desperate Raul Castro who knows perfectly well that Venezuela's free oil accounts for 60% of the yearly revenues of the broke island's state.

Still, Mr. Maduro, as the anointed successor to Hugo Chavez, appears like a boy putting on his dad's shoes. His desperate attempts at emulating Hugo Chavez have till now harvested some success as well as ridicule, even from chavists. Venezuelan chavism - its hardcore is at least 40% of the population - is in genuine grief, looking up to Hugo Chavez as a divinity and finding some comfort in having Maduro as a stand-in for him. But the country's economy is running steerless. The shortages of even basic goods, car spare parts etc. are caused by a chronic cash shortage of the Venezuelan government. The attempts at introducing a Marxist economic structure in Venezuela since 2007 have caused havoc and virtually destroyed the national production. In 2012, 97% of the country's yearly revenue was based on oil, while at the time of Chavez' rise in 1999 it hovered around 60%. The country, which produced its own dairy products till 2007, now is totally dependent on milk and cheese importations from Argentina, Uruguay and other countries. Marxist-inspired expropiations and nationalisations have done nothing but destroy Venezuela's non-oil production. The national currency, the bolivar, is worth nothing outside of the country, and quickly losing its value in Venezuela. The day Venezuela isn't able to import anymore with its petrodollars in order to finance its misiones and fill up empty shelves, is the day everything here will experience a melt-down. That day won't come soon, but it depicts in a clear way how deteriorated this country has become under chavist rule, and how we all live and bounce on an oil bubble which, theoretically, could one day burst and throw the whole nation into an abyss.

Despite Hugo Chavez's undoubted achievements on the social and macropolitical fields - he has redefined Latin America's position against the rest of the world, for instance, and introduced social policies in a region oblivious to its army of poors - his ultimate legacy for Venezuela has been a total failure. The country is split in two almost equal parts. The economy is a shambles, the criminality has never been that higher ever in its history, society is merged in a deep crisis. And he has been too late in building up a good continuity of his regime. Nicolas Maduro, or whoever will be put in his place by a restless military (who clearly is controlling the country's course now), will be able to stir up chavist sentiments for a time. But when the people realize that the man / woman in the red shirt imitating El Comandante is NOT Chavez, and has only hollow recycled phrases to sell to them amidst chaos and a mounting anarchy, what will happen then?

As things go, and historical events flow, the chavist movement without its charismatic founder and leader, will soon split up like peronism in Argentinia, into radical and less radical factions. It's too early yet to tell what will happen in Venezuela in the coming months. One thing is sure however. Opposition leader Henrique Capriles has a very slim chance of winning the April 14 presidential elections against Nicolas Maduro. Maduro has made a very clever use of Hugo Chavez' death, the country's grieving and the ironclad control of the regime on all national institutes, including the Supreme Court. Thanks to that, Maduro has achieved to push through his grab for power in a pseudo-legal way. His investiture as "interim president" and his simultaneous candidature for president have broken constitutional and electoral law, but protests were in vain. The Supreme Court, a true kangaroo court, approved all of this.

So, it is expected Maduro will win the presidency on April 14. But as I pointed out before, what will happen when the country will start looking past the Chavez mask and see who Maduro really is? I personally don't think Maduro is able to master the power machinery left behind by Chavez. He has no economic background, no original ideas other than that of a syndicalist leader he once was. Will he be able to survive the transitional period? One never knows how the cookie crumbles. But if Nicolas Maduro wants to survive as president and new leader of the chavist movement, he will have to change, and quickly.

While Chavez, despite his bully acting, really knew when to play soft tunes to his adversaries and when not, Maduro has no clue what that means. His attitude towards the opposition has been sheer agressive and abusive. Other than looking for reconciliation and national peace, his boorish behaviour has only deepened the gap between chavists and opposition, and maybe even between chavists themselves. Although they know Maduro is Chavez' appointed successor, he lacks the charisma and the popularity among that group. He will have to change his acting and his image quickly. Otherwise, I see a new period of chaos for Venezuela after April 14. As if Venezuela isn't living in enough chaos already.

Waiting for Hugo Godot

Another weekend came and went, and still there is no real news about Hugo Chavez. Nothing. The only information the world gets, is through VP Nicolas Maduro and his team, who in a series of contradictory messages paint an image of Hugo Chavez as the president who is both present and absent. Jokes are going around about the enigmatic president - one that he is the true Santa: no one sees him but everyone has to believe in him. Needless to say at this point, the government hasn't done anything to dispel rumors about the true condition of Hugo Chavez. If anything, the contradictory reports from within the government itself have only fanned them to new heights. But attention of the Venezuelans is gradually turning to their everyday problems such as the devaluation, the scarcity of products, and above all the rampant criminality. Even the opposition media are paying less and less attention to what is happening politically. Everybody is getting tired of this hide-and-seek game, even the chavists.

But the social networks, specially Twitter, are fuming with wildest rumors, truths, half-truths and downright lies. There was one rumor, last Friday just after I closed my blog, that there was a quarrel between VP Maduro and the defense minister admiral Molero, in which Maduro supposedly wanted to sack Molero for insubordination and Molero replied that the only one to sack him is Chavez personally, and no one else. Nobody has confirmed this news / rumor, but I personally don't discard it. The army have been very silent these last days, their political conman Diosdado Cabello has kept his mouth shut as well while Maduro and his civil neocommunist club have been endlessly blabbing and contradicting each other. It is advisable to watch how the armed forces, this dark horse, the source of power and coup d'etats, will behave the weeks to come.

Meanwhile, on the economic front things are going from bad to worse. Something is not going right with the importations. There are signs that the chavist government is strapped of cash with the barrel of oil at around 100 bucks (???). That could explain in great part the puzzling shortage of even sugar! This country exported sugar! Now it seems most of the white sweet stuff is coming from capitalist Brazil. The government is doing everything to contradict this even with the use of plain lies. According to this socialist government, there is no shortage. "Hamstering agents" of the "ultraright fascist groups" under orders of the "foreign imperialists" are supposedly sabotaging the blooming socialist economy, planted by the "endless wisdom of Chairman Mao, sorry Comandante Chavez" blablabla. The same endless communist blabber which I heard in the seventies and eighties. Anyone suffering of so-called "Ostalgia", or nostalgia for Soviet times, should come here. For me, it's like riding a time machine over and over again. With of course knowing that this movie, called Socialist Venezuela, will end in total and utter failure.

But back to the news. The expected devaluation is now 3 weeks old, but independent economic analysts are already stating that Venezuela will suffer a second devaluation. If that is true, and I think it is, the devaluation will take place after the July elections, putting the country under a very tough situation till that month, when it probably will get worse. To erase all doubts: the economic decline in Venezuela started right after Chavez started the conversion to a marxist economic structure in January 2007, after his second reelection. It has virtually devastated the country's non-oil production, making the country even more dependent (over 90%) on its oil revenues. Despite heavy warnings from all side, the Chavez team is bent on keeping and even radicalizing its marxist course, thinking maybe that the oil revenues will wash away all mistakes. But to me and countless others living this downward hill ride with horror and amazement, things in Venezuela will get worse, much worse. This neocommunist Jurassic Park will throw Venezuela to the level of Castrist Cuba.

Unless people open their eyes. This however is a wish, not a statement built on facts. Venezuelans are still much too cozy in their semi fantasy world, fueled by the world's cheapest gasoline, to really understand what is coming to them. And the poor? Always been poor and ignorant, always will be. To them, Hugo Chavez will remain a redeemer for the time to come, even as this regime is starting to crumble away under the crushing weight of its own ineptitude.

Back again! Reloaded!!!!

Well, it's been a very long time. Living in this godforsaken city - it will be 7 years coming July - has impeded me in keeping true to this blog. But I have made a solemn promise to myself to be a Good And Faithful Blogger.
At this very moment, I am sitting in the middle of the Venezuelan post-Chavez vortex, about 20 minutes driving from the military hospital where he is SUPPOSED to be convalescing after having SUPPOSEDLY been flown back from Havanna, Cuba last Monday.
It's now Friday on the calendar and we have seen "dick" of Chavez, nothing, not even a blurry picture. The smiling and happy-happy pictures of Chavez and his daughters, SUPPOSEDLY taken last February 14, are most probably Photoshop fakes, as countless Venezuelan Twittees have posted their own version of the picture with Chavez reading Playboy, an opposition newspaper, you name it. I have downloaded some very funny ones, one very crafty one of Hitler reading a Venezuelan newspaper of that very day. Photoshop is Magic. That was for sure. But what is happening with Chavez? Where is he? Is he still alive?
Despite Peace Noble prize winner Rigoberta Menchu and hordes of red-clad wellwishers screaming and assuring each and everyone that Chavez will be on his feet in no time, helped by astral forces and whatever, the rational look at Chavez' chances of ever reappearing, is bleak, to say the least. I personally sense that the regime of Vicepresident Maduro, which is doing everything to crush and intimidate dissenters and the opposition, is desperate to hold power no matter what the cost. A NO to Venezuela's plea for more credits from Big Buddy China has made things worse, leading the straggling economy to a dark abyss with a devaluation of almost 50% - the third in three years in a row - , rising prices, food shortages, rampant criminality and whatever else it takes to ruin my days in this country.
If Chavez is dead, or not fit anymore to hold the presidency he was reelected to last fall, then reelections are mandatory according to the country's constitution. The mentioning of this by MP's of the opposition have resulted in enormous regime yelling and screaming, threats and some of those opposition politicians being accused of corruption and persecuted juridically by the government-controlled justice apparatus. Forget any impartiality from the government's side. It's a Cuban-styled Soviet era totalitarian regime with trotskyist mannerisms. And the Chavez-wannabe VP Nicolas Maduro has made this clear to everyone caring to listen and understand. Under Chavez, this regime made its utmost efforts to show a democratic face to the world. Maduro and the cronies of his regime have no problems in tearing that mask from their totalitarian faces. Efforts are made to exclude the only independent TV channel Globovision from the new digital TV system, shutting the last critical mediatic voice down and submitting the rest to follow the regime's ideological line.
The last deed of the Maduro regime has now been to deny a former police inspector, accused of killing scores of demonstrators in 2002 in a kangaroo court with forged evidence, a more humane treatment, while medical reports clearly state that the prisoner's health is failing. The denial by a government-controlled judge will probably seal this man's fate.
Venezuela is a broke country, with all its oil richness. The country is rife with anarchy at the moment. The regime does everything now to prepare the credulous part of the Venezuelan population for what the rest already knows. But God only knows what the effect will be on a country that is feeling more like a shaken champagne bottle ready to burst.
Keep in touch, also via Twitter: @avginkel.

Obama!

Dear nightly dwellers, Caracas is saying hello to you again. I´m sure you agree with me that we are living through special times. Specially in the USA, where a special man whom I won´t need to describe became president. I had my doubts about Obama, I must admit. During the presidential campaign, he sounded too Carterish, too Clintonesque. I am a witness of the disasters resulting from Jimmy Carter´s good-willed human rights politics, and what can I say about Bill, besides Monica, blue dresses and cigars? That he was a president of smooth and nice words... but bombs kept raining on Afghanistan and Iraq during his 8 years in office, so there is something to be said in favor of George Dubya Bush - he was not the first one to be mean to Saddam Hussein, just the one who gave him the final kick.

But on January 20th, I saw a serious, calm-looking man with a noble attitude, holding one of the best political speeches I´ve heard in years. So, Mr. President, forgive my doubts. I´m sure you will be the best Democratic president since Harry S. Truman. In any case, should you ever read these lines from Venezuela, here comes some advice. Be true to yourself. And tell Chavez to get stuffed.

Hugo Chávez doesn´t like you. In fact, he is so mad at you (being that fading artist of former glory who suddenly sees his audience shifting towards that new, younger performer) that instead of using the N word and getting rid of his bad vibes, he unleashes a savage ire and fury towards demonstrating students. Ordering his police and military forces to use "gas of the best" on them, beating the hell out of them... and it was all screamed on live TV. So said, so done. Students had a bad day yesterday. But Venezuela had an even worse day. And all because Hugo is angry at you, Mr. President. Because he knows that he is no more the big star of the Third World. He could make Africans cheer at him with some free petrol tankers - but now Africans are cheering at you for free - because of you.

Congratulations, Mr. President. I foresee a future for our world, and really - you are more inspiring already than JFK has ever been. Keep it up. I have heard enough recycled hate slogans here in this country that remind me of a drab and grey 70´s day in the Soviet Union. Enough of Che, enough of old senile men trying to play young revolutionaries. Who needs a half-dead Fidel and a worn-out Hugo when the leader of the most potent country on this planet is fulfilling a dream of millions? Without executions, without hatred, without exiles.

Long live democracy. And good luck to you, Mr. President.